Missouri guard Tony Perkins dunks in the first half as he is defended by Illinois forward Ben Humrichous during the Braggin’ Rights rivalry game on Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, at Enterprise Center.
COLUMBIA, Mo. — Welcome to the jungle.
Missouri men’s basketball (11-2) is set to begin Southeastern Conference play Saturday, kick-starting its run through the nation’s most talented college basketball league. One of the biggest national developments of the season thus far has been the SEC’s dominance of nonconference play.
But now, the league must feast on its own flock.
“You have teams that’s going to be in a cluster,” Mizzou coach Dennis Gates said. “It’s going to be scary, and I have to prepare our guys for this journey the best way I can. We started that preparation in June. I knew the conference was going to be this tough.”
The SEC could have a dozen of its teams make the NCAA Tournament. Maybe even a baker’s dozen — that’s the level of depth that will be on display for the next 18 games. Finishing just under .500 will probably be enough for a couple of SEC teams to crack the tournament field.
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And the separating factors will likely be small. KenPom, which both rates teams and projects the outcome of future games, estimates that Missouri will go 7-11 in conference play this season, winning most of its home games but struggling on the road.
Yet the algorithm thinks just three games will be decided by double digits. KenPom’s projections call for six one-score games — that would be one-third of MU’s SEC matchups — and a further seven to be within two possessions.
Extrapolate that hypothetical math, and the Tigers’ conference season could be determined by 20 or so possessions.
“Guess what?” Gates said. “There’s going to be a lot of teams (that) play their very best and lose the game. That’s how scary it is.”
Speaking of scary: Missouri’s first SEC matchup comes at 3 p.m. Saturday at No. 2 Auburn (12-1), which is about as treacherous a game as it’ll see this season. Bruce Pearl’s Tigers will be favored by a healthy margin over Gates’ bunch, and big man Johni Broome — 18.2 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.6 blocks per game — will be the name to watch.
That’s what will also be trying for Mizzou. Four of the nation’s top six teams in The Associated Press’ men’s basketball poll are from the SEC (No. 1 Tennessee, No. 2 Auburn, No. 5 Alabama and No. 6 Florida), but so are some of the country’s top players.
There’s likely lottery pick Tre Johnson, the Texas guard whose ability to create and make shots off the dribble has him leading the conference in scoring. There’s Tennessee’s Chaz Lanier, who is shooting 45.9% from 3-point range on the most shots from beyond the arc of anyone in the league. There are established names like Broome and Alabama’s Mark Sears. And even on teams that aren’t as highly regarded, there are individual players fully capable of taking over a game, like Mississippi State guard Josh Hubbard or Oklahoma’s Jeremiah Fears.
“There’s a lot of great coaches,” Gates said, “but player-wise, there’s a lot of great players in this conference that makes our teams and our conference what it is.”
After Mizzou gets its SEC awakening at Auburn, its next two conference matchups will be tone-setters for what the Tigers can do in terms of a postseason spot. They’ll host Louisiana State on Jan. 7 and Vanderbilt on Jan. 11. There are no quasi-guaranteed wins in this SEC — KenPom has MU by four against LSU and three against the Commodores — but those are two opponents Missouri needs to beat at home to play at an NCAA Tournament level.
What the standard for making the tournament will ultimately be probably lies around the eight-win mark. If the Tigers — or any SEC team, really — can get to 8-10 in conference play, they’ve likely got a good chance at landing on a bracket.
The early benchmark to monitor for Mizzou is sitting at .500 after its first six SEC games. That would probably mean wins over LSU, Vanderbilt and Arkansas at home, with losses to Auburn, Florida and Texas on the road. A 3-3 record at that point would give MU a solid foundation for the rest of its league run. Competitive showings away from Mizzou Arena would boost this season’s potential.
And because ongoing streaks need to be mentioned: Missouri has lost 20 consecutive games against SEC opponents, dating back to a March 11, 2023, loss to Alabama in the conference tournament.
To assuage your worry: The odds of Mizzou going winless in SEC play yet again are extremely slim. KenPom puts the chance at 0.01%, or one in 10,000.
