Who will win the Golden Globes? Think: 'Brutalist,' 'Shogun'

In the past (when the Hollywood Foreign Press Association was in charge), the Globes were a bellwether of later awards shows. Sure, they embraced big celebrities and went with popular choices for their winners but they provided an “idea” of who might win.

After a few false reboots, they found a home on CBS and a voting panel that’s not exactly transparent. Who selects these things? Good question. The People’s Choice Awards routinely honored shows that were on the network airing them, so it’s like some CBS offerings could do well.

The key to picking Golden Globe winners is simple – if someone appears to be an odd choice for the category, he or she has a great chance. If a newcomer is up against an oldtimer, go with the newcomer. And if there’s a big star with even a hint of winning, give him the edge.

That said, here’s how this year’s competition stacks up:

BEST PICTURE/DRAMA

The nominees are good choices – ones who will figure into the Oscar race. The battle comes down to “The Brutalist” and “Conclave.” The former seems like a sure winner due to its heft and sweep. Check, “The Brutalist.”

BEST PICTURE/MUSICAL/COMEDY

Here, it’s a little trickier. “Wicked” fits the category better than the others, but “Anora” and “Emilia Perez” are more award-worthy. Because it’s the Globes, we’re thinking “Wicked.” “Anora” is a likely bridesmaid.

BEST ACTOR/DRAMA

Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist.” (This would play well with the Best Picture/Drama win. Only Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) could slip in. A win here, though, would certainly give someone a leg up on the competition. The six nominated are likely to be in Oscar’s starting lineup.

BEST ACTRESS/DRAMA

On paper, Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) would seem like the winner. But she isn’t exactly a ringer for Maria Callas. That leaves the door open for Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) and even Pamela Anderson (“The Last Showgirl”). In its old incarnation, the Globes would have picked Anderson. Now, we’ll see how blue chip the voters are. Kidman should win.

BEST ACTOR/COMEDY/MUSICAL

This is a weak field, so anyone could win. Because he had several strong films this year, Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”) could tower; Glen Powell (“Hit Man”) is the populist choice.

BEST ACTRESS/COMEDY MUSICAL

Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) fits the bill, but she’ll have another shot next year when “Wicked, Part 2” comes out. That means Mikey Madison (“Anora”) is primed to win. If voters want to make history, Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) is the first trans actress in the category. And Demi Moore (“The Substance”)? She’s the old Hollywood choice who would offer a great acceptance speech. We’re picking Madison.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

No contest. Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

We have the “Wicked” conundrum here, too. Ariana Grande was great, but she has another chance next year. Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) had the toughest role and should win. If you want old Hollywood choices, go with Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”), who should be in Oscar’s race, too. Winner: Grande with Saldana a close second.

BEST DIRECTOR

If “Brutalist” wins Best Picture/Drama, then Brady Corbet is in line to be best director. Sean Baker (“Anora”) could be a spoiler.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

“The Wild Robot” (which also could pick up Best Song for “Kiss the Sky”).

BEST MOTION PICTURE NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE

“Emilia Perez”

CINEMATIC BOX OFFICE ACHIEVEMENT

“Wicked.” It’s popular.

BEST DRAMA SERIES

“Shogun”

BEST COMEDY SERIES

“Hacks”

BEST DRAMA ACTOR

As much as it should be Hiroyuki Sanada (“Shogun”), this is a category where it could be any of the others. Billy Bob Thornton (“Landman”) would be an ideal winner, particularly if ex-wife Angelina Jolie is in the crowd. (That’s how the old Globes folks used to think.)

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS

Anna Sawai (“Shogun”) should get it; Kathy Bates (“Matlock”) will.

BEST COMEDY ACTOR

Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) should be the winner but it feels like Adam Brody (“Nobody Wants This”) will be.

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS

Jean Smart (“Hacks”).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”) with Harrison Ford (“Shrinking”) on his tail.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Here’s where anyone can win. A Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”) win would give her what Emmy has denied; a Jessica Gunning (“Baby Reindeer”) prize would solidify that series’ dominance.

BEST LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE

“Baby Reindeer”

BEST ACTOR/LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE

Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”)

BEST ACTRESS/LIMITED SERIES/MOVIE

Cristin Milioti (“The Penguin”) but Jodie Foster (“True Detective: Night Country”) has a chance.

BEST STANDUP SPECIAL

Nikki Glaser is hosting the show. You do the math. If she’s not the winner, it’s Jamie Foxx (“What Happened Was”).

The Golden Globes air Sunday on CBS.